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Poker.co.uk - Poker News Archive
Tuesday 16th October 2007 Wipe The NFL ATS Slate Clean!
by Scott Spreitzer
We’ve reached the point in the NFL season where pointspread records for the season start to become misleading. In the first month-and-a-half, the records actually do a pretty good job of explaining the season.
Struggling teams have poor ATS records. Hot teams have good ATS records. That’s about to change!
*Teams that started hot are about to cool off a bit, but the general public will still expect high lines in their games. If you try to bet on the top pointspread teams from this point forward, the hurdles will just be too high. You’ll win some. You’ll lose more than you win.
*Teams that started poorly are making adjustments that will lead to improvements in play. The public will be betting against these teams hand over fist because the results have been so ugly so far. Going against poor ATS teams with your own money will be a losing proposition. Sure, one or two of the struggling teams will just be bad all year. Most will start covering their spreads though. The hurdles are very low for them to do that.
This combination of dynamics helps explain why the general public does so poorly year after year. They lose in September and early October because they’re betting on last year’s perceptions rather than this year’s rosters. As soon as they talk themselves into betting based on this year’s results, teams start regressing to the mean!
I think you’ll be better served drawing a big fat 'X' threw the ATS records you have right now for the 2007 season. Just start over. Put everybody at 0-0 against the spread. Then, let what happens the next few weeks guide your thinking.
*Some off the radar teams are about to go on nice cover streaks that could last the full season. Nobody will take them seriously because of the poor ATS mark in September. And, even if they cover a few in a row, they’ll just look like a 50/50 team in the full season numbers. Once the public gives up on a team, it takes a lot to get them back in the fold.
*Some media favorites are about to go ice cold against the spread. They may keep winning straight up, but they won’t win by enough to make their backers any money. By starting over now, you’ll see how 0-1 turns into 0-2, and 1-3, and 2-5 ATS the rest of the season. If you don’t do that, a big name team might go 0-4 ATS the next month and just be 50/50 for the year. That 0-4 is going to have better predictive value in the second half of the season than the 50/50 will because the lines always stay stacked against hot starters. Based on what I was hearing in the sportsbooks last week, the public has already decided who’s going to be playing in the Super Bowl!
Start over now, and let these new ATS records influence your selection process the rest of the way. History suggests you’ll be very happy with the results.
My only caveats would be these:
*If a lesser team has been struggling because of injuries, wait until they get healthy to start betting them. You don’t want to throw good money at a team that just doesn’t have the horses to compete when shorthanded. A team like this should stay in the go-against category until they get healthy.
*If a hot team is one that the public just won’t believe in regardless, you can consider backing them until the line catches up. Last year the New York Jets covered three of their first four games. The public couldn’t ever buy them as a real contender, so the Jets kept right on covering. New York finished 11-5 ATS, meaning they were 8-4 ATS after that hot start. I think you probably know which teams the public is in love with already this year. You can go against those teams. See if you can sidestep a pothole with whoever this year’s version of the NY Jets turns out to be.
You know that I believe the best value in the NFL over the long haul involves betting on underdogs. This particular approach will give you plenty of dog action. You’ll be betting against overpriced favorites as they come back to earth after hot starts. You’ll be betting on bounce back underdogs at great prices because the public has given up on them.
So erase those ATS records and get ready to win!
Source: OnlineCasinoNews
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